Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5.5%

this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0.2%

for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8.75% a year. This was expected as the presidential

election is nearing. The rate fell from 13.75% to 8.75% between December 2008

and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to

curb inflation.

Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe.

Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone of contention for the two countries. The US was accused of excessive cotton subsidies by Brazil. After eight years of litigation at the World Trade Organization Brazil has won the case and Brazil’s move to raise tariffs on

a wide range of American goods has a potential of starting a new front in the trade

war with the US over cotton subsidies. Overall, the issue is still not blown out of

proportion as the two countries are engaged on other fronts.

Fisher Capital Management Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Investment - Brazil’s government announced a R$958.9bn programme of investments in infrastructure for 2011 to 2014. The program is known as the PAC 2 … the

Portuguese acronym for accelerated growth programme, part two … to increase

Brazil’s investment rate and its potential for economic growth during the period

of the next government, which begins on January 1 2011.

Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Investment News: Henrique Meirelles who provided monetary stability to Brazil is all set to stand for election either as a Vice President or a senator. President Lula may choose him to

run for the Vice President office to send a message that macroeconomic stability

will be maintained under Ms Rousseff, presidential nominee of Mr. Lula’s party in the October election.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

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South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul

South Korea:  Fisher Capital Management Seoul  - The South Korean economy is expected to grow by 4–5% in 2010. The government’s efforts were seriously questioned when it clipped the independence of the central bank when the government sent its observers to the central bank’s policy meetings.

However, the central bank will start raising interest rates in the third quarter to prevent inflation and asset bubbles. For the time being inflation is stable. It fell from 3.1% in January to 2.7% in February, but inflation will accelerate in the second half due to higher oil prices and rising imports. This should see policy interest rates

to go up by 25 basis points in the third quarter and another 25 basis points in December.

South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul - The government appointed Mr. Kim, who has served as a presidential economic secretary and is currently South Korea’s ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Under the new leadership, the central bank may cooperate even more closely with the government than it has under Governor Lee. The central bank under Mr. Kim may be more willing to risk inflation

in order to ensure that the economic recovery remains on track. The Korean policy

interest rate has been at an all-time low of 2.0% for more than a year now and the bank expects inflation to stay around 2.5% in the near future.

South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.

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China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Korea

Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - April is going to set the tone for the world economy depending on how China is labeled by the US and China’s reaction to it. Our gut feeling is that apart from the rhetoric — which is in the air with respect to the Yuan-dollar rates, China’s current account surplus and internet independence — neither of them will rock the boat.

Already five prominent members of the G20 — South Korea, Canada, France, the US and the UK — have sent a coded warning to China against reneging on economic agreements. Perception of China and the US in international relations is far apart.

According to China, the main issues are Taiwan and the sale of arms to Tibet and

for the US the issues are the Yuan-dollar rate, trade surplus and Internet freedom.

China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - Under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988, the U.S. government

is to decide whether to label China a “currency manipulator.” This has not been

done since 1994, but if China is named, it will give the US Congress new ammunition

to press for concrete action. China is asserting itself in international relations.

Beijing has emerged from the global recession with a fresh confidence about its

state-led economy, which has delivered stimulus projects from high-speed railways

to highways and bridges with remarkable efficiency. And it is in no mood to be

lectured by Washington about how to support the world economy or to operate her

own economy.

China’s economic growth will be around 10% in 2010 following strong industrial

output growth in coming months. Inflation may rise to 3.5–4% in 2010. The government’s target of inflation is 3%. But, China has hidden debt risk among Chinese local government investment companies. Official estimates of the total outstanding loan balance for such investment entities exceed Rmb 6,000bn — or roughly 20% of GDP — a figure that may be an underestimate.

China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Korea - Undervaluation of the Yuan is taken for granted and is estimated to be in the range of 30–40%. The US administration believes that the Yuan’s appreciation will not only solve the trade deficit problem between the US and China but also the US unemployment.

Beijing’s position is that China’s currency policy isn’t the cause of the U.S.’s economic problems, and that China wouldn’t adjust its currency rate under outside pressure. “The Chinese government will only make the decision according to the national condition and the country’s development level,” according the Chinese President Wen. China believes that a surge in the Yuan could destabilize the global economy, hitting developing nations especially hard and even perhaps causing the value of the dollar to plunge.

The World Bank forecasts that China’s current-account surplus, the broadest measure

of its trade position, will rise this year to $304 billion, after dropping to $284.1 billion

in 2009 from a record $426.1 billion in 2008.

Fisher Capital is a leading global financial institution holding extensive relationships with financial institutions, institutional investors and corporations across the world.

As a full service company Fisher Capital provides a full range of investment banking services including advanced risk management, corporate strategy and structure, plus raising capital through debt and equity markets. With this as our backbone we continue to provide a client service second to none.